Les Arcs goes in as expected at a generous 5/2, easily holding Fyodor on the run to the line.
Current Profit/Loss: +£5.50
Saturday, March 18, 2006
Saturday @ Lingfield
Lingfields Winter Derby meeting brings together the cream of All-Weather sprinting. At the head of the market are William Haggas' Fyodor and T.J. Pitts Les Arcs. At todays weights Les Arcs just has to turn in similar form to his recent beating Fyodor to secure victory today and it is surprising he is available at 2/1.
Suggested Bet:
2.05 Lingfield
5pt Win Les Arcs
Suggested Bet:
2.05 Lingfield
5pt Win Les Arcs
Thursday, March 16, 2006
Just as....
Just as nobody seems to be getting any winners at Cheltenham - I'm following suit on the All-Weather!!
Sweet Pickle ran a complete no-race - it looks like this slight class and weight rise did for her in spectacular fashion. As with dirt racing in America a class hike or drop is usually significant and I'll be a lot more cautious when selecting exposed horses who are up in grade.
One sprint race tomorrow at Lingfield and it looks a trappy event with 3 Dandy Nicholls runners returning after a break - 2 of which are more than capable in this company even with the uncertainity of the surface/track.
Current Profit/Loss: -£7.00
Sweet Pickle ran a complete no-race - it looks like this slight class and weight rise did for her in spectacular fashion. As with dirt racing in America a class hike or drop is usually significant and I'll be a lot more cautious when selecting exposed horses who are up in grade.
One sprint race tomorrow at Lingfield and it looks a trappy event with 3 Dandy Nicholls runners returning after a break - 2 of which are more than capable in this company even with the uncertainity of the surface/track.
Current Profit/Loss: -£7.00
Another day... Another sprint...
The last race is Southwell only has 10 runners but is quite competitive and again there looks to be plenty of early pace to ensure a true race. The early pace battle is likely to be won by Misaro, but with Winthorpe, Alpaga Le Jomage, Desert Opal and Shifty Night all in attendance - this is not certain. Winning Pleasure is in good form and must have an E/W chance, but is likely to find one or two too good.
The selection is hold up performer Sweet Pickle who has really impressed on her last two outings, travelling well on both occassions - and overcoming traffic problems last time to win cosily. A rise is the weights is unlikely to stop her - and the fact that she is guaranteed a good lead in this race is a confident E/W selection. The draw in stall one isn't perfect - as long as Danny Tudhope brings her off the rail early - this shouldn't inconvenience.
Suggested bet:
5.40 Southwell
2pt E/W Sweet Pickle
The selection is hold up performer Sweet Pickle who has really impressed on her last two outings, travelling well on both occassions - and overcoming traffic problems last time to win cosily. A rise is the weights is unlikely to stop her - and the fact that she is guaranteed a good lead in this race is a confident E/W selection. The draw in stall one isn't perfect - as long as Danny Tudhope brings her off the rail early - this shouldn't inconvenience.
Suggested bet:
5.40 Southwell
2pt E/W Sweet Pickle
Wednesday, March 15, 2006
A brave effort....
Smile for Us did us proud with a brave front running effort from his wide draw. Attempting to make all from his draw in 9 of 12 he used a lot of energy to get the inside rail. He was only out-pointed towards the final furlong by the well-backed favourite Danetime Lord. At 16/1 he ran above market expectations, finishing 4 lengths clear of the the third horse he can win in this grade when getting a softer lead and better draw.
Trombone Tom travelled well for most of the race but was squeezed for room approaching the final bend and got slightly outpaced by the front two. He stayed on one-pace to finish 6th of the 12 runners, a disappointing effort considering his SP of 4/1.
Danetime Lord responded well to a positive ride and isn't as quirky as first thought. This was a nice effort - he benefitted from the strong pace and inside draw.
Current Profit/Loss: -£3.00
Trombone Tom travelled well for most of the race but was squeezed for room approaching the final bend and got slightly outpaced by the front two. He stayed on one-pace to finish 6th of the 12 runners, a disappointing effort considering his SP of 4/1.
Danetime Lord responded well to a positive ride and isn't as quirky as first thought. This was a nice effort - he benefitted from the strong pace and inside draw.
Current Profit/Loss: -£3.00
Not to be..
A poor show by both horses yesterday - neither were at the races and Ladies Knight is clearly finding his own ideas and way of coming out of the stalls! He may be of slight interest in the same grade back at Wolverhampton.
Onto todays racing and the last race Wolverhampton is where the concentration lies. There looks to be lots of horses who want to be up there with the pace - but non more so than Smile For Us. He has twice gone close in this grade - attempting to make all, finishing 2nd on both occasions. Those two good runs were split by another creditable effort against older horses - where he was taken on for the lead but showed guts to keep on for 6th. He possibly went to quick on his latest outing and if able to set softer fractions here has a leading chance - even from his wide draw.
The other big possible for the race is Trombone Tom who holds a few of these on form - and his inside draw of 3 could significant. Should be able to lie close to the pace and if Smile For Us goes to quick - he would be the one most likely to pounce.
The favourite Danetime Lord seems a little quirky - flashing his tail like a windmill on his last run. He also as pace - but clearly doesn't want an aggressive ride at the moment and he may be forced to battle and for these reasons - he's readily passed over. He might be better when gelded.
Suggested bet is:
6.00 Wolverhampton
1.5pt E/W Trombone Tom
1.5pt E/W Smile For Us
1/4pt Reverse Exacta
Current Profit/Loss - £5.50
Onto todays racing and the last race Wolverhampton is where the concentration lies. There looks to be lots of horses who want to be up there with the pace - but non more so than Smile For Us. He has twice gone close in this grade - attempting to make all, finishing 2nd on both occasions. Those two good runs were split by another creditable effort against older horses - where he was taken on for the lead but showed guts to keep on for 6th. He possibly went to quick on his latest outing and if able to set softer fractions here has a leading chance - even from his wide draw.
The other big possible for the race is Trombone Tom who holds a few of these on form - and his inside draw of 3 could significant. Should be able to lie close to the pace and if Smile For Us goes to quick - he would be the one most likely to pounce.
The favourite Danetime Lord seems a little quirky - flashing his tail like a windmill on his last run. He also as pace - but clearly doesn't want an aggressive ride at the moment and he may be forced to battle and for these reasons - he's readily passed over. He might be better when gelded.
Suggested bet is:
6.00 Wolverhampton
1.5pt E/W Trombone Tom
1.5pt E/W Smile For Us
1/4pt Reverse Exacta
Current Profit/Loss - £5.50
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
All systems go...
It's all systems for the first bet(s), both prices look very fair with Ladies Knight around 16/1 and On The Trail about 7/1.
Suggested bet is:
2.25 Southwell
2pts E/W Ladies Knight
1pt E/W On The Trail
1/4pt Reverse Exacta
Suggested bet is:
2.25 Southwell
2pts E/W Ladies Knight
1pt E/W On The Trail
1/4pt Reverse Exacta
Monday, March 13, 2006
One day to go...
One day to go till the big race.......No, not the Champion Hurdle, the 0-45 rated Banded Stakes at Southwell of course!
At The Races video archive has been the kind of web-site sent from above and they have just archived Ladies Knight's last two races. The first was over a hugely testing for this sprinter 9 furlong event. No surprises that Ladies Knight finished a long way behind. On his latest start over 7 furlongs, the jockey simply forgot the hood was still on the horse as the stalls opened, losing 10 lengths at the start can be described as a hinderance!!
It appears to me the only reason this horse has been campaigned over these longer trips is to get into one of these banded races. Ladies Knights has a tendency to break a little slowly, hopefully Jamie Mackay will bounce him out the stalls and chase him along all the way as this seems the best way to ride him.
The Sporting Life web-site have given their betting forecast for the race - putting Ladies Knight in at 16/1. The Racing Post put their forecast up later on today - and their prices are the ones that most exchange punters use a guide, so it will be interesting to see what they put up.
A market move for the horse would also be significant, as the last time he was backed, he was given a seriously tough ride to finish a fast finishing 2nd.
The Sporting Life have also put my 2nd choice On The Trail in at 10/1 - which would be a very fair price. A small reverse forecast as well perhaps?
At The Races video archive has been the kind of web-site sent from above and they have just archived Ladies Knight's last two races. The first was over a hugely testing for this sprinter 9 furlong event. No surprises that Ladies Knight finished a long way behind. On his latest start over 7 furlongs, the jockey simply forgot the hood was still on the horse as the stalls opened, losing 10 lengths at the start can be described as a hinderance!!
It appears to me the only reason this horse has been campaigned over these longer trips is to get into one of these banded races. Ladies Knights has a tendency to break a little slowly, hopefully Jamie Mackay will bounce him out the stalls and chase him along all the way as this seems the best way to ride him.
The Sporting Life web-site have given their betting forecast for the race - putting Ladies Knight in at 16/1. The Racing Post put their forecast up later on today - and their prices are the ones that most exchange punters use a guide, so it will be interesting to see what they put up.
A market move for the horse would also be significant, as the last time he was backed, he was given a seriously tough ride to finish a fast finishing 2nd.
The Sporting Life have also put my 2nd choice On The Trail in at 10/1 - which would be a very fair price. A small reverse forecast as well perhaps?
Sunday, March 12, 2006
Cheltenham? - Na'h thanks - Southwell? - Yes please...
On Tuesday all eyes will be on Cheltenham - but I've been giving the sand-pit at Southwell the once over - and hopefully have unearthed a little gem amongst the banded boys.
Ladies Knight could be a real springer in the opening race at 2.25 - Derek Shaw's 6-y-o takes a drop down to banded class for the first time - the handicapper has finally relented after some dismal efforts over distances which he clearly doesn't stay.
Over 5 furlongs at Southwell the middle has been the place to be - and Ladies Knight has picked up a welcome draw in 7.
No doubt we'll be taking a chance as to what mood he's in. Derek Shaw is quoted as saying "he has a temperament problem" - the price could more than compensate - he could easily be 20/1 +
On The Trail is another I like in the race - he comes here in good enough form to win, his price is much more likely to be accurate though and could be worth a saver.
I'll give more thoughts and more indepth analysis nearer the race.
Ladies Knight could be a real springer in the opening race at 2.25 - Derek Shaw's 6-y-o takes a drop down to banded class for the first time - the handicapper has finally relented after some dismal efforts over distances which he clearly doesn't stay.
Over 5 furlongs at Southwell the middle has been the place to be - and Ladies Knight has picked up a welcome draw in 7.
No doubt we'll be taking a chance as to what mood he's in. Derek Shaw is quoted as saying "he has a temperament problem" - the price could more than compensate - he could easily be 20/1 +
On The Trail is another I like in the race - he comes here in good enough form to win, his price is much more likely to be accurate though and could be worth a saver.
I'll give more thoughts and more indepth analysis nearer the race.
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