Fromsong drifted markedly in the betting pre-race and the race didn't go to plan as he tried to make all. Pieter Brueghul didn't go to the front and Robert Miles had to try and judge the pace from the front. In the final furlong eventual winner Mutamared rolled over to the rail and hampered Fromsong although he looked beaten at the time.
Current Profit/Loss: +£11.60
Saturday, April 01, 2006
A tissue......bless me.....
These are my prices for the 3.35 at Lingfield.
Fromsong 11/4
Qadar 7/2
Mutamared 7/1
Pieter Brueghul 8/1
Saviours Spirit 10/1
One More Round 12/1
Cummiskey 16/1
Hornpipe 18/1
Book 100.41%
At the current prices available Fromsong looks overpriced at 4/1 and is a solid E/W selection. Qadar would also be interesting but he doesn't appeal as an E/W bet due to the fact that he has question marks over the 6 furlong trip. His win price is about right.
Saviours Spirit looks massively under-priced and is helping make the market for Fromsong.
Suggested Bet:
3.35 Lingfield
2pts E/W Fromsong
Fromsong 11/4
Qadar 7/2
Mutamared 7/1
Pieter Brueghul 8/1
Saviours Spirit 10/1
One More Round 12/1
Cummiskey 16/1
Hornpipe 18/1
Book 100.41%
At the current prices available Fromsong looks overpriced at 4/1 and is a solid E/W selection. Qadar would also be interesting but he doesn't appeal as an E/W bet due to the fact that he has question marks over the 6 furlong trip. His win price is about right.
Saviours Spirit looks massively under-priced and is helping make the market for Fromsong.
Suggested Bet:
3.35 Lingfield
2pts E/W Fromsong
Friday, March 31, 2006
Top class sprint action from Lingfield.....
The 3.35pm at Lingfield tomorrow is a competitve sprint handicap at the higher end of the scale. There is £20,000 in prize money up for grabs so it's no surprise Nick Litmodden brings two of his powerful sprint stars to the fight, and with only 8 runners a return of some sorts for owner Nigel Shields looks on the cards.
As there is only eight runners - I'll run through them all......
1. Qadar - He continues to impress around here over 5 furlongs. His last effort around here was mightly impressive pulling 1 1/4 lengths clear of Fromsong. His draw in stall 2 might put him in the same problems he incurred when getting no run up the inside behind Les Arcs. The trip of 6 furlongs is also a slight unknown - if this was over 5 furlongs he'd be impossible to oppose.
2. One More Round - Nick Littmoden's 2nd representive, has put up three very good efforts in his three starts around here. Possibly missed his best chance last time out, and has shot up 8lb for for those efforts. This extra furlong might be to his advantage, and has the excellent Ryan Moore in the saddle - but this is a big ask.
3. Fromsong - Has quality form at 6 furlongs and is 5lb's better off with Qadar, add to that the 3lb that jockey Robert Miles takes off and he begins to look nicely weighted. He should be back to peak form now, this being his third run back since a mini break in December. He has a nice looking draw in stall 4, where he can either stalk or make the pace from.
4. Cummiskey - Has flashed his tail on occasions and there will be no hiding place today. Has the blinkers on first time, and is plenty high enough in the weights for what he's achieved to date, also has the outside draw in 8 to contend with.
5. Pieter Brueghel - Likes to make all the running, that is no easy task here at Lingfield and his lack of course experience my also count against him. He should win his races again this year, but may need a to drop a few pounds in the handicap first.
6. Hornpipe - A very well bred colt (dam won the Lowther as a 2-y-o) and interesting contender having his first start for Malcolm Saunders. He was very highly tried when trained by Michael Stoute last year in a couple of the most competitive sprint handicaps and for a 3-y-o, performed well. It will be interesting to see how he goes, but he might just need the run like some of the stables other early season runners.
7. Mutamared - A horse on the improve over 6 furlongs last season and another good season looks ahead of him. Unproven on the surface and without a run this year he faces a tough ask against in-form rivals. No surprise to see him contest the Ayr Gold Cup later on in the year though.
8. Saviour's Spirit - Has improved significantly over the winter and deserves to take his chance here. He is now facing the big boys though and looks to have it all to do off his revised mark. There are more races to be won with him, but I can't see it being in this class.
I'll post any bets in the race tomorrow dependent on prices.....
As there is only eight runners - I'll run through them all......
1. Qadar - He continues to impress around here over 5 furlongs. His last effort around here was mightly impressive pulling 1 1/4 lengths clear of Fromsong. His draw in stall 2 might put him in the same problems he incurred when getting no run up the inside behind Les Arcs. The trip of 6 furlongs is also a slight unknown - if this was over 5 furlongs he'd be impossible to oppose.
2. One More Round - Nick Littmoden's 2nd representive, has put up three very good efforts in his three starts around here. Possibly missed his best chance last time out, and has shot up 8lb for for those efforts. This extra furlong might be to his advantage, and has the excellent Ryan Moore in the saddle - but this is a big ask.
3. Fromsong - Has quality form at 6 furlongs and is 5lb's better off with Qadar, add to that the 3lb that jockey Robert Miles takes off and he begins to look nicely weighted. He should be back to peak form now, this being his third run back since a mini break in December. He has a nice looking draw in stall 4, where he can either stalk or make the pace from.
4. Cummiskey - Has flashed his tail on occasions and there will be no hiding place today. Has the blinkers on first time, and is plenty high enough in the weights for what he's achieved to date, also has the outside draw in 8 to contend with.
5. Pieter Brueghel - Likes to make all the running, that is no easy task here at Lingfield and his lack of course experience my also count against him. He should win his races again this year, but may need a to drop a few pounds in the handicap first.
6. Hornpipe - A very well bred colt (dam won the Lowther as a 2-y-o) and interesting contender having his first start for Malcolm Saunders. He was very highly tried when trained by Michael Stoute last year in a couple of the most competitive sprint handicaps and for a 3-y-o, performed well. It will be interesting to see how he goes, but he might just need the run like some of the stables other early season runners.
7. Mutamared - A horse on the improve over 6 furlongs last season and another good season looks ahead of him. Unproven on the surface and without a run this year he faces a tough ask against in-form rivals. No surprise to see him contest the Ayr Gold Cup later on in the year though.
8. Saviour's Spirit - Has improved significantly over the winter and deserves to take his chance here. He is now facing the big boys though and looks to have it all to do off his revised mark. There are more races to be won with him, but I can't see it being in this class.
I'll post any bets in the race tomorrow dependent on prices.....
Wednesday, March 29, 2006
A few quiet days...
A quiet couple of days ahead with some trappy looking sprints. Tommorows two sprints at Lingfield both look tough. My preference would be the 4-y-o+ plus race at 5.15pm. I'll do some solid research later this evening and maybe unearth a betting proposition.
Looking ahead to Saturday - Lingfield hold a good class sprint handicap and top weighted Qadar is improving fast and although he seems like a 5 furlong specialist - he still looks the one to beat here.
Looking ahead to Saturday - Lingfield hold a good class sprint handicap and top weighted Qadar is improving fast and although he seems like a 5 furlong specialist - he still looks the one to beat here.
Monday, March 27, 2006
Well backed light......
Desert Light was well supported and does the business at a rather skinny 11/2. Hope everyone was on at the earlier 10's or bigger on the exchanges!
Kempsey was unable to perform to the level expected and was unplaced.
Current Profit/Loss: +£15.60
Kempsey was unable to perform to the level expected and was unplaced.
Current Profit/Loss: +£15.60
The Racing Post go....8/1
The guys down at the Racing Post know the time of day and put Desert Light in at 8/1, no pulling the wool over those guys eyes.
There is some 12/1 available with one bookmaker, and on the exchanges and at that price the horse still represents an E/W bet.
Onto the 2nd race at Kempton's new polytrack surface, a five furlong contest with some in form runners. The configuration of the track means that horses drawn high should hold some kind of advantage, especially over five furlongs where the bend comes up quickly.
Native Title returned to form last time out, but the race was very weak and he would need to step up again to win this event, at the age of eight and a poor looking draw in stall 4, he is easily passed over at 4/1.
Effective drops down to the minimum trip after some bold front running efforts over six furlongs. I'm not convinced he has the speed for five furlongs and until he shows it on the track - I'll leave him out.
The one I like is well drawn Kempsey from stall 11. He has run some solid races in defeat - the times of which give him a leading chance here. He likes to be up with the pace, something I feel will be a major plus around Kempton until the jockeys get an idea about the speed to go early. At 12/1 he looks a solid E/W bet.
Of the others, Zarzu has it all to do, to come from stall 1 and his hold up style might not be suited here.
Desert Lord is a complete unknown as he has moved from Alan Berry's stable to Kevin Ryan, drawn well in stall 12, and heavy market support bode well for his chance. I'll have to pass him over though, without a start for 163 days, he faces some fit and in form rivals here.
Suggested Bet:
5.30 Wolverhampton
1pt E/W Desert Light
2.20 Kempton
1pt E/W Kempsey
There is some 12/1 available with one bookmaker, and on the exchanges and at that price the horse still represents an E/W bet.
Onto the 2nd race at Kempton's new polytrack surface, a five furlong contest with some in form runners. The configuration of the track means that horses drawn high should hold some kind of advantage, especially over five furlongs where the bend comes up quickly.
Native Title returned to form last time out, but the race was very weak and he would need to step up again to win this event, at the age of eight and a poor looking draw in stall 4, he is easily passed over at 4/1.
Effective drops down to the minimum trip after some bold front running efforts over six furlongs. I'm not convinced he has the speed for five furlongs and until he shows it on the track - I'll leave him out.
The one I like is well drawn Kempsey from stall 11. He has run some solid races in defeat - the times of which give him a leading chance here. He likes to be up with the pace, something I feel will be a major plus around Kempton until the jockeys get an idea about the speed to go early. At 12/1 he looks a solid E/W bet.
Of the others, Zarzu has it all to do, to come from stall 1 and his hold up style might not be suited here.
Desert Lord is a complete unknown as he has moved from Alan Berry's stable to Kevin Ryan, drawn well in stall 12, and heavy market support bode well for his chance. I'll have to pass him over though, without a start for 163 days, he faces some fit and in form rivals here.
Suggested Bet:
5.30 Wolverhampton
1pt E/W Desert Light
2.20 Kempton
1pt E/W Kempsey
Sunday, March 26, 2006
Desert to show the light.......
The last race at Wolverhampton tomorrow is a competitive banded event and the Sporting Life web-site betting forecast reflects that. I believe they could be massively out of line with one in this race.
Desert Light's form entitles him to be no bigger than 7/1 for this race - yet the Life have posted up 16/1!
He has an ideal draw in stall 2 - where he should be able to get a good lead into the straight. His win over course and distance four runs back also came from stall 2. His form since that win has been good considering he has had poor draws on each occasion. This drop into banded company looks like an ideal opportunity to get back to winning ways and with Dane O'Neill booked a good run is expected.
It will be interesting to see what price this horse trades overnight on the exchanges.
Desert Light's form entitles him to be no bigger than 7/1 for this race - yet the Life have posted up 16/1!
He has an ideal draw in stall 2 - where he should be able to get a good lead into the straight. His win over course and distance four runs back also came from stall 2. His form since that win has been good considering he has had poor draws on each occasion. This drop into banded company looks like an ideal opportunity to get back to winning ways and with Dane O'Neill booked a good run is expected.
It will be interesting to see what price this horse trades overnight on the exchanges.
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